The JRB Economic Index rose to +1.25 in June, 2014. The rise is a continuation of recent economic growth. Corporate income continues to rise and with it the stock market. Some wage growth in the coming months would be a welcome sign. The Federal Reserve will probably not raise interest rates until the job situation improves. We don't expect a rate hike until late 2015 at the earliest.
Friday, July 25, 2014
Sunday, June 15, 2014
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
The JRB Economic Index fell slightly in February. The new reading of +0.85 was slightly lower than the January, 2014 reading. The 288,000 jobs added in April, was the largest gain in two years. Vehicle sales are rising and consumer sentiment is on the rise as well. The problem causing the slow growth path the economy has taken, is the lack of wage growth. The jobless rate continues to decline, but the trend in hourly wage growth is hurting the purchasing power of consumers. So we continue on this path of continued slow growth. Because economic growth remains slow and inflation remains in check, it is quite possible that this recovery may well prove to be longer in length than most economists estimate. Let's hope this is genuinely the case.
Monday, March 24, 2014
has started to rise yet again. The January, 2014 reading was a positive 0.90 and marks a new upturn in our Index. The economic picture we see in our Index is one of slow uneven growth. With the Federal Funds Rate remaining at such a low level for an extended period of time, a true picture of economic growth has emerged. Expect slow growth moving forward as short-term rates remain low. The Fed is attempting to unwind its stimulus at a slow and steady pace so as not to rattle the markets. It should be interesting to see what the new Fed Chief will do going forward. How soon will it be before a rate increase? At this point, it would seem that any Fed Funds hike is a year or more away. And with no rate increases in sight, it appears that a continuation of our chart trend seems likely.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Sunday, November 24, 2013
As Good It Gets?
It may just be that the economy may continue on its current bumpy path for several years to come. It would appear that Janet Yellen will become the next Federal Reserve chairwoman. In all likelihood, this would signal no new change in policy from that of the outgoing chairman Ben Bernanke. The recovery, which began over four years ago, has been tepid compared to previous recoveries. It may just be that because of the slow pace of growth, the recovery may last longer than in past economic cycles. Inflation remains quite low and the unemployment rate is still quite high. The current economic numbers point to an economy slowly on the mend. We see no reason for the Federal Reserve to exit its stimulus efforts in the near term.